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New Yorkers will discover who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is Zohran Mamdani, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the party primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about two million city residents, has led Cuomo by double-digits in every poll taken in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was widely condemned as bigoted after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with Americans' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could cement national Democrats' existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident throughout the campaign. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and perhaps that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Still, Mamdani has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani appears to have won sympathy and support, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd