A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
